Tip for today: January 2011

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Its Never Too Late For Online Reputation Management

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Monday, January 24, 2011

Making Money Program

It was supposed to come up with antidotes for pathogens that terrorists might use for a mass-casualty bio-attack. But after spending over $1 billion during the last five years, the Pentagon’s Transformational Medical Technology initiative can barely develop drugs ready for a clinical trial. That’s why the officials tasked with running it are setting their research-subsidy targets much lower.

In a shift, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s science and technology chief tells the Boston Globe that the bio-initiative will now invest money on early detection of new pathogens. That puts about another $1 billion worth of Pentagon cash closer to where science is, rather than throwing money at crash programs for undeveloped antidotes. Ultimately, the Pentagon wants to develop multi-pronged vaccines that can resist a variety of biological agents — what it calls “One Drug, Many Bugs.” But that’s a long way off: step one is understanding how those sicknesses develop.

The Globe reports that the program has hit one snag after another. Out of nearly 50 research programs, only two (unspecified) efforts to neutralize pathogens like Ebola and Marburg have shown promise, and they’re not ready for clinical trial. Making matters worse for the program, the Food and Drug Administration doesn’t allow experimenting on people, so Transformational Medical Technology would have to make do with animal surrogates.

It’s also become something of an object of fun within the military’s chem-bio community. Our pal Jason Sigger lamented the program’s inability to come up with a lightweight, portable Tricorder-like bio-detection device. The office tasked with coming up with one still sought to buy a Cadillac, one networked into troops’ communications system and that can also detect chemical weapons. “All they need to do is warn the individual that there’s a bad bug nearby,” Sigger wrote.

But don’t expect the Pentagon to steer away from far-out bio-medical research. In 2009, Darpa wanted to create a bank of “universal immunity donor cells” to head bio-outbreaks off at the pass. More recently, in September, it doled out over $5 million so Arizona State University could experiment with growing vaccines with the aid of tobacco plants. “I don’t know if we can pull this off, but I think this basic idea might work,” one of the ASU researchers shrugged when the grant was announced.

Still, according to the Globe, if the military wants to speed up the day when it can deliver mass antidotes for a host of bio-threats, it’s got to subsidize pharma companies’ research in areas that won’t yield the next generation of lucrative “blockbuster drugs.” Bio-defense expert Crystal Franco of the Center for Biosecurity tells the paper, “It is different when the government is your only market. There needs to be incentives for companies to participate, to take it on for the public good.” That is, until someone figures out how to make Viagra stop anthrax.

Photo: Texas Army National Guard

See Also:

I Want My Tricorder!

Army Seeks Super-Sniffer to Detect Explosives, Bio-Agents

Darpa-funded Researchers: Tobacco vs. Viral Terror

Pentagon Plots Insta-Vaccines for Mystery Bugs

Products of the past…doomed…

Chinese President Hu Jintao: the US dollar-based monetary system is a “product of the past.”

He is right about that. And last week two major US credit agencies – Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s – underlined the point. They said America’s triple A credit rating would be lost if the nation continues to borrow so much money.

Amen to that, brother…

But how can the US borrow less?

Ben Bernanke says the US economy will probably grow between 3% and 4% this year.

Pretty good, huh? We can stop worrying, huh?

Wait a minute. We don’t know if the US economy will grow this year…and neither does Ben Bernanke. But even if it were to grow at 3% to 4%…would that mean we were enjoying a genuine recovery? Could the US dollar-based monetary system hold up after all? Could it surprise the Chinese and be a product of the future as well as of the past?

Let’s see how the present economic model works. You spend $10 trillion on bailouts and stimulus. This puts the whole country on course for bankruptcy…where the Chinese are telling you that your money is history…and the rating agencies are threatening to take you down a notch or two. But for your trouble you get, say, 4% growth.

Hmmmm…4% growth is equal to about $560 billion more GDP. But don’t look too closely. Much of this extra GDP is debt-fueled government boondoggling which adds nothing real to the nation’s wealth.

But in order to keep this “growth” going, you have to continue to run deficits – of about a trillion dollars a year. Hold on…what kind of business is Ben Bernanke running?

It costs more in deficit spending than you get in positive GDP growth.

Well, maybe you lose money every year…but you can make it up in the long run!

Hold on… The deficits are expected to run 5% to 10% of GDP for years. Maybe forever. If the growth rate is only in the 3%-4% range, it will mean that debt always outgrows growth. In fact, that is exactly what almost every economist projects.

Then, what’s the point? Well, maybe deficits can be cut…and the growth rate will pick up? Hey, anything is possible. And since we’re starting out in 2011 with a positive attitude…we’re ready to believe anything.

And maybe that’s what gold speculators were thinking on Friday. They sold gold – taking the price down $26 an ounce. Gold rises as confidence in the financial system falls. If gold is falling, it must mean the confidence in the Bernanke, Geithner team is increasing.

Based on the evidence so far, we’d have to take the other side of that bet. If Bernanke & Co. have any idea what they are doing it is not apparent from the public record. Even now, in the 5th year of the Great Correction, they still seem unable to see what is going on.

Bernanke:

“We got in trouble in the first place by making too many bad loans, right. So you’ve got to make good loans. We’ve got to have credit worthy borrowers.”

It may be that, in private, Bernanke has a clearer view of things. But we cannot tap his phone or channel his dreams. All we have to go on is what he says…and does. So far, he has said or done nothing that gives us confidence in the man.

He’s right: we got into trouble by making too many bad loans. But why did “we” do that? Because the Fed lent money too cheaply! It encouraged speculation and risk taking – especially by the banks, who must have known that they would be bailed out if they got into trouble.

And how could the Fed remedy the situation? Easy. It could raise rates – just as Paul Volcker did. It could put the squeeze on speculators. It could raise reserve requirements. It could allow the banks to go bust…send them a message they wouldn’t forget.

But what has Bernanke done? Just the opposite. He has rewarded the reckless speculators by buying up their bad bets (adding $1.7 trillion in trashy mortgage backed securities to the Fed’s core holdings). He has cut rates even more…bringing the effective rate down to zero for privileged borrowers. And he has created the illusion of “recovery” – by goosing up prices of stocks and commodities.

Bad policies. Bad in the short run. Worse in the long run.

Bill Bonner

for The Daily Reckoning

The US Deficit Recovery Program and Other Fallacies originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."

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Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Make Making Money

It might have caught some onlookers at the Consumer Electronics show by surprise to see 50 Cent hawking a brand-new pair of headphones from a publicly listed penny stock distributor called H&H Imports, Inc. But after promoting its goods on CNBC and plugging the company to his 3.8 million Twitter followers, 50 Cent managed to make H&H Imports $50 million in one day, with the stock closing at a 240 percent jump yesterday. Go ahead and switch the style up. And if they hate then let 'em hate and watch the money pile up. Yesterday the rapper took a step back from the company in which he (and G-Unit Brand) invested $750,000 in shares and warrants in November, after details emerged about the company's potentially shady financials, especially in the high-risk realm of penny stocks, which trade at a low price and not on major market exchanges. Last year, the company lent $141,000 to "an entity in which our Chairman's brother is an officer and owner." It also claimed more than $1.3 million in losses in the last quarter despite short-term working capital loans from its CEO. H&H might not even specialize in headphones. Its Bloomberg profile describes the company as engaging "in the wholesale purchase and sale of women's handbags."

After yesterday's huge jump in stock, the rap mogul tweeted a word of caution to his eager Twitter followers, "I own HNHI stock thoughts on it are my opinion. Talk to financial advisor about it." Followed shortly by, "HNHI is the right investment for me it may or may not be right for u! Do ur homework." But hours after the warnings, he continued to retweet bullish followers, who crooned about his taking "the stock market to new heights. Talk about making history again! AND YOU KNOW IT" or being "The man of the century" for having, "Nice business moves &stock investments." As of about 10 a.m. this morning, the stock is down 20 percent. He, he get money. Even if you lose yours.

Get Rich or Die Tweeting: 50 Cent Plugs Sketchy Penny Stock, Shares Skyrocket [NYO]

50 Cent's Tweets Make A Staggering $50 Million In One Day [BI]

50 Cent Cautions Investors His Penny Stock May Not Be Right for Them [NYO]

[50Cent/Twitter]

I recently watched the movie Exit Through the Gift Shop from well-known artist Banksy. I got a kick out of this film for multiple reasons having liked Banksy's artwork for years now.

What most amused me though is how well it goes about making you question what celebrity is and how much you can achieve by becoming famous. The key point for me is questioning whether you really need to be creative and innovative above and beyond being famous.

Then Mike Butcher over at Techcrunch went and posted something this morning about startup teams trumping celebrity tech entrepreneurs. In summary, he too is making the point that execution far outweighs celebrity.

Basically, what I'm getting at, is all the parallels you're starting to see between the startup world and the movie business. I am definitely not an expert on the movie business and can only imagine what it's truly like from afar. Yet, we've all seen enough of it to realize a bit how things work in Hollywood. You basically have a couple large companies or studios as they're usually called. There you have management at the top who are the power-brokers in the industry. They back films which are used as vehicles to market actors who either succeed or not. If they do succeed, they are cast in further films and a ton of marketing is thrown at these films, regardless of whether these actors have talent or not.

Ultimately, the goal is to make as much money as possible and if you're the one making all this money, keep other people out so you can continue to make as much money as possible. Sure, there are some stand-out actors, managers and studios who go against the grain but basically it's an industry optimized to make money. Simplified by me immensely but I believe you understand what I am saying.

Now let's switch over to the startup world. It's no longer Hollywood and we're now a bit north in Silicon Valley. You have a couple firms who call all the shots and are known as Tier 1 VC's (with some major players like Google, Apple, and Facebook thrown in for good measure).

These VC's fund firms instead of films run by entrepreneurs instead of actors. Some of these entrepreneurs are successful and some are not. Those who are get funded further by these Tier 1 firms. Lots of companies are started and sold since these power brokers in the Valley sit on each other's boards and pass deals back and forth. The power brokers continue to make money and those entrepreneurs who don't lead to successful exits get weeded out (where's the reality TV version of "out to pasture" for entrepreneurs?)

Ultimately, as in the movie business, you make as much money as possible and keep out the riff-raff who would keep you from making tons of money as long as possible.

Now don't get me wrong. I am in no way arguing about whether the movie or startup business is right or wrong or skewed in someone's favor or not. I'm also probably simplifying it too much as well. But the point I am making is that we are in a world where it's about making money. Sure, you can get your touchy-feely on and say you're changing the world but ultimately you wouldn't "work" if it wasn't about making some money.

Hence, my advice to any entrepreneur is to take advantage of whatever you have if you ultimately want to be successful. If you are naturally good looking, get your face out there. Be on TV and in the press. If it helps you make money, go for it.

At the same time, if media attention doesn't help you make more money, don't focus on it. Get your pretty head down to business and execute like hell to innovate, optimize and sell your product. Or have the best of both worlds. Be a CEO focussed on getting your brand or product out there and have a number two (great blog post by Ben Horowitz) who takes care of business. What you need to focus on is making money and being the scrappy entrepreneur that you are, you'll optimize wherever you can to achieve your goal.

In the end it's never about who was most popular that determines success. Just think back to all those football players and cheerleaders in high school. (I've seen some of them from my high school....thank you Facebook.....and had a good laugh!) So often there are people you never hear about making tons of cash since they don't need to focus on media.

On the other hand, if Twitter/Foursquare/Zynga/Groupon hadn't received so much media attention, you think they'd be where they are now? I highly doubt it and I guarantee you that they had a clear strategy in place to use media (and position their founders) from the start. Hence, don't waste time focussed on the wrong things. If you're a celebrity entrepreneur who's counting his millions hats off to you. If you've become a media darling and are broke, well tough luck kid. Try something new.

By the way, here's what Exit Through the Gift Shop is about cut and pasted from Wikipedia. Think what you will about whether it's a real story or not but reast assured the dollars earned by "Mr Brainwash" were real!!

Exit Through the Gift Shop: A Banksy Film is a Gonzo Documentary which tells the story of Thierry Guetta, a French immigrant in Los Angeles, and his obsession with street art. It is presented as a documentary, but reviewers have questioned its factuality. The film charts Guetta's constant documenting of his every moment on film, to his chance contact with his cousin, the artist Invader, and his documenting of a host of street artists with focus on Shepard Fairey, and also Banksy though the latter's face is never shown, and his voice is distorted to preserve his anonymity

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News of the World feigns shock at new twist in the phone-hacking ...

Who is the paper trying to fool with its 'internal investigation' - the public or Rupert Murdoch?

Police: 2 teens shot at California high school – This Just In ...

[Updated at 4:05 p.m.] A suspect in an apparently accidental shooting at Gardena High School in California has been caught and handcuffed by police, according to footage aired by CNN affiliate KTLA shortly before noon PT.

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Friday, January 14, 2011

Free rental agreement forms 20mg

The main areas of law which are still eligible for public funding are Criminal, the Tenant part of Landlord & Tenant and Family/Matrimonial. Some criminal matters may be means tested and may require a contribution towards the legal advice costs but legal aid is available for most people facing criminal prosecution.

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The situation with Aid for family/matrimonial matters is somewhat different and the rules are beyond the scope of this article. Broadly speaking if a litigant is on benefits then they won't have to make a contribution toward their legal costs and it will all be funded by Legal Aid. If they are not on benefits and earning a wage they may have to make a contribution towards the cost of their legal work. It happens that very few people who are not on benefits fall in to the category where all their costs would be publicly funded.

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Make sure to pay ALL future fills and obligations online. This is an obvious one of course, but it is so very important to keep things completely clean at all points forward.

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There are several other specific and little-known steps that can accelerate your success with getting the right kind of mortgage and can help you avoid a bad credit mortgage--make sure to keep reading and researching.

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Social news has many flavors. Twitter and Facebook function as social news feeds with your friends pushing out stories they find interesting. But what about news about your friends or other people you care about? Two Harvard sophomores ...

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Thursday, January 13, 2011

Making Money Marketing

Applying analytics to magazine sales at Hearst

It’s safe to say that analytics are no longer online news’ equivalent of fantasy baseball circa 1998: relegated only to the geekiest corners of the operation. News editors and executives not only know what kind of hourly, daily, and monthly traffic their sites get, but they can tell you who’s their best referrer and what stories will predictably provide a pageview explosion. (Of course there’s still a debate on what role those metrics should play for news organizations.)

But what about on the print side? Specifically magazines: When it comes to newsstand distribution, the numbers are largely a guessing game. And when you’re spending millions on printing and delivering magazines, that’s an expensive guessing game.

“There’s a lot of waste, in a sense,” said Charlie Swift, vice president of database strategy and marketing for Hearst Magazines. “You may put out 10 copies, sell 4 and 6 get tossed.” The flip side, of course, being when you don’t stock enough magazines at locations where they sell out. Distribution has largely been based off previous sales at given locations, but variables can come into play, such as where magazines are placed (near the checkout vs. on a newsstand) and demographics in an area (or as Swift told me: “If you’re selling Cosmopolitan in a retirement community, that’s probably not a good idea.”).

“We believe there’s a way to make [distribution] more efficient by putting analytics behind it,” Swift told me.

All of this is why Hearst held a competition to see who could build a better analytics model to predict newsstand sales for magazines. It’s a Netflix Prize-like approach to figuring out how well a magazine will sell at a given location, based off historical sales data. There were more than 700 participants in the competition, and last month Hearst and the Direct Marketing Association awarded a team $25,000 for their formula, which generated magazine sales estimates that were nearest to actual newsstand figures. Swift said they’re looking at how they can adapt the model to distributing different titles.

They’re hoping analytics can be a way of becoming more efficient and saving money — starting by wasting less paper. According to figures provided for the competition by the National Center for Database Marketing, less than 40 percent of all copies are sold, and the magazine industry saw close to a six percent drop in newsstand sales between 2009 and 2010. Swift said using analytics benefits readers “if we can be more efficient as an industry and take costs out that are not adding to the customer.”

What’s almost ironic about magazines getting turned on to analytics is that they’re historically known for holding on to information about readers from home subscriptions, direct mail, and surveys. Swift knows this better than most; his job is a relatively new position created at Hearst specifically to look at metrics. Like many organizations, Hearst’s magazine division is in the process of building a unified customer database that ties together information like bill payments, web visits, and promotions received.

Aside from the economic benefits of getting better data, Swift said he thinks magazine publishers realize the cost of storing and managing information has gone down. They’re also taking notice of how analytics are used in making decision for news sites. “The web changes the culture too,” he said. “There’s too much information to absorb — you have to process it, have to let analytics drive it in ways.”

Photo by YoungDoo Moon used under a Creative Commons license.

Justin Ellis | Jan. 10 | 1 p.m.

Tags: analytics, circulation, data, distribution, Hearst Corporation, magazines, metrics, Netflix, subscriptions

Even in times of severe budgetary crisis, WMATA still has to advertise itself. And what better way to reverse the public's negative opinion about random bag searches, constant maintenance, annoying talking buses, broken escalators, confusing fare structures and so forth than with some state of the art "guerrilla" marketing! Kytja Weir reports that the agency is going to try and get your attention the same way your local emo band does.

The transit system brought on Williams Whittle, based in Alexandria, earlier this month to help market the agency using traditional advertising but also possibly "guerrilla marketing" and "street teams," said Metro spokesman Reggie Woodruff.

"Williams Whittle will assist us as we continue to explore ways to increase revenue and off-peak ridership and to more effectively promote Metro and the improvements that we are making," he wrote in an e-mail.

That could mean "unconventional marketing" that directly engages potential riders, he explained. He could not provide any examples of what such direct marketing might look like, though.

What, was Evan Hensleigh not available? WMATA will be using about two-thirds of its $1.8 million advertising budget on Williams Whittle's services. For the sake of public transportation, I sure hope that Williams Whittle has some better "unconventional" ideas than those Second Life animations which Metro rolls out every now and then -- based on the company's website, it looks like they've got a ton of experience creating slightly annoying, yet oft-imitated television ads.

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The economy seems to be finally be rebounding, with stocks climbing to a two year high yesterday!

Apple, News Corp. Delay "Daily" iPad Newspaper | Peter Kafka ...

Turns out you'll have to wait a bit longer to see The Daily, Rupert Murdoch's long-awaited iPad news service. Apple and News Corp. have made a joint decision to push back next week's planned launch.

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Monday, January 10, 2011

Being Right or Making Money

GroupMe, a service that lets users start a group chat using text messages, announced today that it has raised $10.6 million in its second round of funding — but it won’t be generating any kind of revenue any time soon.

The startup lets phone owners create a single phone number for a group chat. Whenever anyone sends a text message to that number, it’s sent out to everyone else in the group. It works for conference calls as well — anyone can dial into the number and start a group chat.

The first version of GroupMe was built over a weekend in May during a hackathon, a type of programming contest which challenges developers to swiftly create a working Web service, sponsored by TechCrunch, the technology blog now owned by AOL. Its creators famously drew offers for funding as soon as they left the stage.

GroupMe is built on top of a service provided by Twilio, a San Francisco-based startup which provides easy access to voice and text-messaging services which might otherwise be out of reach to small companies. Twilio has seen projects that use telephones to do anything from play tic-tac-toe to initiate group text messaging, has been particularly popular and even has its own seed funding program to go with it.

Right now, GroupMe doesn’t even generate any revenue — the service is completely free for users. Twilio, on the other hand, charges two cents to send or receive a text message, with potential volume discounts. Whatever GroupMe’s paying Twilio, it’s a cost that GroupMe appears to be bearing on its own for now. The development group doesn’t have any plans to try to develop a revenue-generating model in the near future. GroupMe has a few ideas like creating sponsored texting groups and brand groups. But that’s all they are for the time being — just ideas — said co-founder Jared Hecht.

“We compressed our 18-month road map into 9 months and we’re still finishing that up before we even consider thinking about revenue,” he said. “Obviously we are not focused on generating revenue right now.”

That didn’t stop Khosla Ventures or any of its other investors from throwing some cash their way. The group raised $850,000 in its first seed round of fundraising from the likes of Ron Conway’s SV Angel and Lerner Ventures. The most recent round of funding was led by Khosla Ventures, General Catalyst Partners and First Round Capital.

GroupMe brought on some pretty heavy-duty talent along with the funding as well. Jeremy Schoenherr, a former developer of Hot Potato and iPhone operating system iOS development expert, has come on board to help develop GroupMe’s mobile applications. Steve Cheney, a former writer with TechCrunch, also joined the team as a business development consultant.

Now that the “distracting” fundraising process is done and the company doesn’t have to worry about making any money for a while, it is turning its entire focus on improving the application, Hecht said.

“Now it’s product time, and it’s buckling down and spinning it out before we even consider finding a revenue,” he said.

Next Story: Access 360 Media raises $40 million-plus for outdoor digital advertising Previous Story: Gadgets galore! Consumer electronics to outpace world economy in 2011

The result is a bunch of excess inventory and poorly thought-out construction projects which have no means of recouping the initial investment needed to repay the bank loans.

This practice is similar to Spain`s situation now where they have entire uninhabited building complexes that have yet to be marked to market, and will probably ultimately be demolished. But at least in Spain, even though it was a construction boom, it was engineered by developers in Spain, and not by some manufacturing outfits like those in China.

So, multiply the bad business project factor by ten and you get an understanding of the magnitude of bad loans on the books of Chinese banks. The problem is being further exacerbated by the practice similar to Spain`s of banks making additional loans to the businesses just so that they can then turnaround and pay back the interest owed on the original loans.

The only way this would work out is if these projects magically develop revenue streams. Unfortunately, in the case of Spain, a 20% unemployment rate, coupled with a still overvalued housing market in which prices still need to come down significantly, would suggest that by the time the Spanish economy recovers enough to support the excess inventory, the abandoned projects are run down and uninhabitable.

A similar scenario could play out in China as well.

True Smart Money Wary of the Write-off Domino

Furthermore, China`s practice of overbuilding at the height of real estate valuations makes even haircuts on loan write-offs an untenable practice for banks, and by further throwing good money after bad, the ultimate mark- to-market effect could be catastrophic for Chinese Banks.

This is the main reason all the major Chinese banks have gone to the market in 2010 to raise more capital before investors wise up to the underlying deficits these banks face, as these bad loans eventually would need to be written off the books.

Victor Shih, a Northwestern University professor estimates that Chinese local governments borrowed some 11.4 trillion renminbi at the end of 2009, and that local government financing loans to be roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP.

Shih reckons the most likely scenario over the next few years is that there would be increases of non-performing loans ratio from local governments. This would require a large scale of recapitalization of the Chinese banking system, which would eat up a large share of China's foreign exchange reserves and possibly slow down growth.

I do believe Beijing is quite capable of a few bailouts and surviving a widespread banking crisis, but this most definitely will not bode well for the financial markets. That's most likely why you see insiders removing capital from direct exposure to the inevitable re-pricing that will happen throughout Chinese markets from real estate to the stock market.

This can be seen at this early stage by the underperformance of the Chinese stock market compared to other global markets. Remember, foreigners cannot invest directly in these markets, so these capital outflows are truly the smart money.

Logistic Gridlock Crimping the Middle Class

Next let`s look at the recent news regarding a severe cutback in automobile registrations in Beijing to 240,000 in 2011 from 700,000 registered in 2010 by the municipal government. Other large cities in China are bound to follow. This is most likely related to the reported 9-day traffic jam on the Beijing-Tibet expressway in August, and other extended traffic jams throughout China in 2010.

China is trying to build infrastructure projects after the fact; whereas with proper central planning these should have been established far ahead of the massive transition from a rural, agricultural based populous to that of a modern, large city based business and manufacturing concentration.

Simply put, it is impossible for all the Chinese citizens who want and can afford automobiles to be able to own and utilize this form of transport without a total breakdown in the transportation system. We are seeing the early stages of complete and counterproductive gridlock in the transportation system of China, and it is only going to get worse over the next decade.

No Jobs for College Grads

For all the talk about how China graduates more engineers each year, and other college educated young people who have strong backgrounds in the hard sciences than most developed nations combined, this is actually another sign of problems to come over the next decade in China.

China`s wealth and emergence into the second largest business economy hasn`t been built around the need for these types of mind and skill set. So literally you have a large mismatch between the types of available jobs in China, that are supported by the heavy manufacturing and construction intensive focus of the past twenty years, to that of the recently educated pool of graduates who have grown in sizable numbers over the past five years.

The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste

This results in a large human asset class that China is currently wasting, as most of the newly educated workforce is working in jobs which require little or no advanced education at the university level. So you have highly educated university graduates in areas like engineering and accounting working low level service and sales jobs that pay less than many manufacturing jobs.

In short, there are too many highly educated Chinese citizens graduating each year for the number of jobs available needing their skill set because China`s economic model isn`t built around these type of jobs. This type of misaligned employment outcomes never ends well; it usually manifests itself in increased civil and social unrest.

8% Inflation in 2011

The next major challenge for China is a skyrocketing inflation, which at its root is the fact that there are too many people chasing too few resources. This fundamental flaw in population dynamics underpins many of the problems that China faces going forward.

Recent CPI data for November illustrates the inflation problem in China with a reading of 5.1% from a year ago comparison, this is up from a 4.4% reading for the previous month. Couple this with the latest 4% hike in fuel prices in China because of rising oil prices, you could expect future CPI and PPI reports to reflect even higher rates of inflation.

For now, most of the year over year spike has revolved around higher food prices as energy has mainly been flat for 2010 thanks mostly to government subsidies. Now that energy prices have entered the picture, China will start to experience even more inflation pressures in 2011.

Furthermore, with the undervalued yuan pegged to the dollar, it is only getting worse for China in 2011 due to Fed's QE2 pressures on the dollar. The real inflation rate for Chinese citizens for 2011 will probably approach 8% next year.

An Asian Contagion by China?

This escalating inflation concern is further compounded by Beijing's lack of decisive action to combat the problem by delaying a much needed currency appreciation, and hiking interest rates in a timely fashion. There is no getting around the fact that these two things need to occur as soon as possible.

By the time the Chinese government is forced to implement these tightening tools, the damage to the economy is most likely already done. The longer China delays the inevitable serious tightening measures, the harder the economic crash that will occur in the aftermath of these policy changes. And it is unlikely to end well. The resultant impact will probably take the rest of the Asian economies down with it – an Asian Contagion scenario.

History Repeats Itself

Eventually central planners and finance ministers around the world might start to understand that policies which lead to bubbles being formed in the first place are counterproductive in the long run. But until that lesson is learned, it seems like we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

Right now, there are more and more signs coming out of China that all is not well with its economy, and the likelihood of a more severe downturn in the future is a distinct possibility, unless its policy makers take decisive and prudent actions to minimize the damage of a hard landing.

Dian L. Chu, Dec. 25, 2010 | Mobile Reader, Website | Google Profile
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Friday, January 7, 2011

Making Money on Ebay

I'm not a big fan of boycotts, but if you can avoid buying Nike, Best Buy, Levi Strauss and Target stuff, you might help stop their support of the global warming scam.

Crony capitalism is a stepping-stone to socialism. The term is used to describe the unholy, anti-citizen alliances between corporations and big government. These kinds of companies generally engage in massive lobbying efforts (read: backscratching) to coerce government into various taxpayer-funded schemes:

• by paying them directly through government purchases...
• by carving out market segments for them through regulation...
• and otherwise increasing profit margins by suppressing the free market.

With this as our context, let's examine The American Spectator's article entitled "What Do Nike, Best Buy, Levi Strauss and Target Have in Common?".

They all support EPA efforts to regulate greenhouse gases, even though that circumvents the citizens' right to have their elected representatives make U.S. laws. More on the Obama Administration overreach and his crony corporatists support at the National Legal and Policy Center blog today.

Heading over to the NLPC, we can discover the sordid details.

Earlier this month corporate climateers including Nike and 3M were given awards -- supposedly "the equivalent of an Oscar for the climate change mitigation world" -- for their efforts to reduce their carbon emissions... Nike also co-signed a letter to President Obama that called for U.S. leadership in an initiative to create and finance the Global Climate Fund, which was established at the UN climate talks in Cancun in early December.

Other members of [this group include] Levi Strauss & Co., Starbucks, Timberland, Best Buy, Ben & Jerry's, eBay, Gap Inc., The North Face, and Target Corporation. Mark them down as corporations who favor the circumvention of the peoples' right to have their elected representatives make U.S. laws.

Carbon dioxide is plant food. It can no more be a pollutant than water vapor or oxygen. The Marxist Left progressives believe, or want us to think they believe, that capping CO2 emissions can act as a thermostat on the climate.

The reality is quite different. Trying to control carbon dioxide is a money-making scam and it has been since the original IPCC reports that were issued by folks poised to make millions through inherent conflicts-of-interest.

Companies that feed this government-run monstrosity should be treated as the anti-free market pariahs they are.

Image: Fox News.

We don't have enough public market acquirers to sustain the start-up ecosystem.
That was the real back story that explains why Google failed to close a deal to buy
Groupon. Groupon wanted to
sell to Google for $6 billion. Of course they did, that is a huge amount of money – real cold hard cash – for a 2 year old
venture. Do you really think they turned that down for the vague possibility of
making more from an IPO in the distant future? Yes we all hear the stories of
visionary entrepreneurs who are such bold risk-takers and some of that is true but
most entrepreneurs don’t love risk, they love eliminating risk on the way to
building a venture. The real story is that Groupon only backed off due to worries that the deal
would fall into AntiTrust
hurdles.

If we only have a handful of acquiring companies (basically today it is Google,
Amazon and Microsoft, now that eBay and Yahoo are wounded), the AntiTrust hurdle becomes more real. Even
if there is no AntiTrust
issue, Google, Amazon and Microsoft simply cannot buy all those venture-backed
companies.

So we need Groupon to go public and use their public
currency to buy other ventures working on local advertising/ecommerce. That will be
good news for lots of ventures. And a Groupon IPO success
will spur on other ventures that are getting ready for IPO.

I don’t know if Groupon really have the solid
financials to go public. We won’t know until they issue their prospectus to the
SEC. Until then we only have rumor and speculation. But if I were a betting man, I
would bet on Groupon being able to go public before
Twitter. And, this will be more controversial, before Facebook. But that as they say is another story. I am not trying here
to compile an actual list of ventures that could IPO in 2011. This is more about the
general environment for IPOs.

This has been what Steve Blank calls the “lost
decade” for tech IPOs. So why do I think that 2011 will be the year this
changes? There are 5 reasons:

Private
markets are under SEC scrutiny. This takes away the easy option of getting
liquidity without either selling or going public. If you have more than 500
shareholders you have to make your financials public, it is the law.

There is a
backlog of great companies that have the financial strength to IPO. The IPO market
has been pretty well closed for a couple of years (some notable exceptions prove the
rule). So the companies that have the potential to IPO have had more time to grow and
get their act together.

Investors
are hungry for growth outside emerging markets. GDP in America and Europe seems to
have a ceiling at 3% and the Chindia and BRIC stories of
emerging markets growing at 8-10% has created too much capital flowing to those
markets (generating fears of a bubble). So investors want companies in the developed
markets that can grow at really fast pace (at least 30%, ideally 60% plus) from a
base of at least $100m revenue for a long time to come. That has to come primarily
from tech/media ventures.

The
macroeconomic picture is improving. Yes, there are always worries and another
crash is always possible, but "markets always climb a wall of worry" and the general
trends seem positive. But cycles don't last forever, so the people making these
decisions (Boards and their Investment Bankers) will look at 2011 as a good window of
opportunity.

The bean
counters have figured out how to live with Sarbox. For a long time, Sarbanes Oxley ("Sarbox") regulatory overhead has been seen as a reason why you cannot
run a public company. Baloney, as they say in Brooklyn. It is a simple bit of
operational overhead, a rounding error for a great company.

IPO is still the golden ticket. Real entrepreneurs want to IPO. Getting acquired
is a great way to build capital, but it is not the dream of the really driven,
talented entrepreneurs. There are logical reasons for this. The valuation at IPO is
usually (not always, plenty of exceptions to this rule) higher than you can get from
an M&A exit. And more importantly for the
entrepreneur, it is actually often easier to manage public market investors than a
bunch of VC with different agendas. But logical reasons be damned, an IPO is simply
the big badge of honor for the entrepreneur and the investors who back him/her.

It is not clear what we will call the decade that starts in a few days time
– the “teens” maybe – but it will possibly be one where we
get a sustainable IPO market for tech ventures. By “sustainable” I mean
that it cannot be a return to the Dot Com bubble years. Only great companies with
really solid financials will get through the IPO gate. And the valuations will have
to remain grounded in reality (short sellers will ensure that is the case).

Here’s hoping. Happy New Year folks.

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